If you want to try to see a supernova explode live, in real time, to see a bright "star" suddenly appear as you watch a patch of the sky, where should you look for the best chance?
Of course, this depends on what observing equipment you have and what hemisphere you are in.
Type Ia supernovae (white dwarfs) can occur anywhere, so your best chances might be to look at a dense concentration of stars. The band of the Milky Way is especially promising because the eyes' unaided field of view is much larger than through binoculars or telescope. Andromeda galaxy. But you probably don't want too many stars, e.g., M87, or else the supernova might not be noticeable to the eye amidst the combined brightness of the rest of the galaxy.
Core collapse supernovae (Type II, etc.) most often occur in starburst regions. Which starburst region or starburst galaxy should you look at for the best chance of seeing a supernova happen? Maybe Large Magellanic Cloud Tarantula Nebula (site of SN1987A), M17 (Omega Nebula) in our own galaxy, Triangulum galaxy (M33)'s NGC 604, M82, NGC 4214, Antennae Galaxies. NGC 6946 (Fireworks Galaxy) has had good past performance, but is obscured.
Having optimized where to look, how likely are you to see a supernova happen? Is the probability literally astronomical? (I'm guessing it's actually not.) How does the probability compare to say that of winning a lottery jackpot?
Assuming you are looking at the right spot, what will it look like? Does a supernova brighten significantly on the order of seconds? Or does it take hours? If the latter, it's probably too slow for the eyes to notice change happening in real time.
For nearby supernovae (core-collapse only), maybe one's best bet is to get connected to SNEWS then try to pick the right direction to look when alerted.
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