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Not unexpectedly, we are seeing more nations whose lockdown dates were set to expire this week extend their social distancing measures into May. Yesterday, we looked at Italy's decision to delay reopening society until May 3rd, France announced their own extension till at least May 11th, and today India extended their original 21 day lockdown to at least May 3rd.
While the social distancing measures and economic shutdowns in Italy and France have reduced the growth of new cases, both countries continue to report several thousand new cases each day.India, while officially reporting just over 10,000 cases, has done very little testing, and so that number is believed to be a major undercount. With a population of over 1.3 billion, India's lockdown is the largest in the world. Unlike many Western nations, India offers very little in the way of an economic safety net for society.
In today's announcement, while stating that there were ample reserves of food and medicine, they requested `well-off people to come forward and help the poor living nearby.'First the announcement from the Ministry of Home Affairs, then I'll return with a postscript.
The decision to extend the Nation-wide lockdown to fight COVID-19 till 3rd May taken to protect lives of the People: Shri Amit Shah
People of India, under the leadership of PM Modi, have set an example for the whole world in fighting COVID-19: Home Minister+
Commendable coordination seen between Centre and States to fight COVID-19: Shri Amit Shah
Salute to frontline healthcare professionals and security personnel fighting COVID-19: Home Minister
Sufficient reserves of food, medicines and other daily essentials in the country, no need for any citizen to panic: Shri Amit Shah
Posted On: 14 APR 2020 3:10PM by PIB DelhiAs difficult as the decision was to put the world's biggest economies - and half the world's population - under lockdown due to COVID-19, the real challenge will be finding our way back to something approaching normalcy.Government of India has decided to extend the nation-wide lockdown to fight COVID-19 till 3rd May.Union Home Minister Shri Amit Shah expressed heartfelt gratitude to the Prime Minister for this decision and said that the decision by the Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to extend the lockdown, put in place to fight and end COVID-19, till 3rd May, has been taken to protect lives of the people of the country.Praising the decisions taken by the Government of India to stop the spread of COVID-19, Shri Shah said that today the world is facing a global epidemic and the people of India, under the leadership of the Prime Minister, have set an example for the whole world in fighting the disease. This is evident in all the timely decisions taken by the government and participation of the people in them, he said.Describing the coordination between the Centre and the States as very important to deal with this epidemic and to meet every need of the citizens, the Home Minister said that the way all the State Governments are working together with the Central Government is truly laudable. This coordination needs to be intensified so that all citizens follow the lockdown properly and no one faces any problem to access things of their everyday needs, he added.Saluting the frontline healthcare professionals and security personnel fighting COVID-19, Shri Shah said that the contribution of our doctors, health workers, sanitation workers, police and all the security personnel who are playing an important role in this fight is very touching. Their courage and understanding in these tough times inspires every Indian. Everyone should follow the guidelines and cooperate with them, he stated.In the time of this crisis, assuring the citizens of the country and motivating them to help each other, Shri Shah said, "As the Home Minister of the country, I reassure the public that there are sufficient reserves of food, medicines and other daily essentials in the country, hence there is no need for any citizen to panic. At the same time, I request the well-off people to come forward and help the poor living nearby".*****
Nothing like this has ever been attempted before, and so there is no playbook, or even a rule of thumb, go to by.No one can say with any certainty what threshold of transmission is low enough to allow nations to reopen their economies without reigniting community spread. And that threshold will likely vary widely between nations.
A level that might work in Western nations - which have a better shot at contact tracing and containment of new cases - might be disastrous for India. Arguably, at the same time, the societal pressures in India to re-open are likely greater than anywhere in the world.This is the great dilemma facing every nation. How long can they hold their breath vs. when it is safe to breathe again?
And while we face this thorny problem in the weeks ahead, always present is the strong possibility that no matter what we do over the summer, we may see another wave of the virus next fall or winter.
Hopefully, by then, we'll have proven pharmaceutical interventions and more abundant testing, but a vaccine will still likely be a year (or more) away. And that assumes a safe and efficient vaccine can be created, tested, and deployed in record time.Over the next couple of months we are going to see a number of major countries attempt to re-open - at least incrementally - their economies. This is likely to involve a lot of trial and error, with more than a few mid-course corrections along the way.
While I'm hopeful, anyone expecting anything close to a smooth landing is likely to come away bitterly disappointed.
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