#15,218
With the rise of our COVID-19 pandemic - understandably - seasonal flu, avian flu, swine variant flu, African Swine Fever, Monkeypox, Ebola, earthquakes, hurricanes, and a host of other threats have taken a backseat in this blog over the past four months.
But despite our current preoccupation, none of these threats have diminished, and all have the potential for exacerbating our current crisis.Living in Florida, I'm particularly concerned about this year's hurricane season, as it will be much tougher for people to prepare than in years past. Crowded community shelters could help spread COVID-19, or the fear of the virus could keep people from evacuating to a safer place.
The same could be said for spring floods in the Midwest, wildfires out west, or an earthquake anyplace.The concurrent return of COVID-19 and seasonal flu next fall could overwhelm the nation's healthcare response, as could the bi-annual return of EV-D68 (see EID Journal: Association of EV-D68 with Acute Flaccid Myelitis, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 2009–2018). Other summer and fall threats include West Nile Virus, Swine-variant influenza, and other vectorborne diseases (lyme, CHKV, Dengue, etc.).
Much will depend on the level of social distancing that carries through the summer.There are other threats, including to our national and global supply chain (see Supply Chain Of Fools (Revisited)), prescription drug shortages (see CIDRAP: Growing Drug Shortages Due To COVID-19), and even food security for some parts of the world (see Iran: Bird Flu, Food Insecurity & Civil Unrest).
If we've learned anything from this pandemic, it is how interdependent the world has become in this 21st century. What happens in China, or Africa, or India can have a profound impact on the rest of the world.Which is why I'll be returning to a more eclectic range of blog topics in the days and weeks ahead. COVID-19 coverage will remain front and center, but it won't be the only threat we'll be watching going forward.
Since from obscure reports (see Dec 31st's China: 27 Cases of `Atypical Viral Pneumonia' Reported In Wuhan, Hubei) big problems can sometimes grow, today we've a series of media reports collected and posted overnight by Treyfish on Flutrackers in an India pig death speculation thread.
Although details remain scant, typical of the reporting is this from Inside NE.
Pork Sale Banned in Assam after 1,964 Pigs Die of “Unnatural” Cause
By Inside NE -April 25, 2020
GUWAHATI, APRIL 25, 2020:
Assam Agriculture Minister Atul Bora on April 25 announced that the State administration has banned the sale of pork meat. This decision has been taken against the backdrop of over a thousand “unnatural deaths” of pigs being reported across the state.
Some media reports are calling this `swine flu', but that term is used liberally in India for any severe (human or porcine) flu. While possible, there are a lot of pig fatal pig diseases, including a lot of pig diseases that could fit the bill, including FMD, PED, Classical Swine Fever (CSF) & PRRS.
One of the major topics of 2019 BC (Before Coronavirus) was the global spread of African Swine Fever, which emerged in China in the fall of 2018, and has subsequently spread across nearly all of Eastern Asia. ASF is also rife in Eastern Europe and Russia (see UK: DEFRA Update On ASF In Eastern Europe/Belgium).
While ASF has yet to be reported in India, it has to be on the list of of possible suspects. CSF is also a possibility.While African Swine Fever (and Classical Swine Fever) do not pose a direct health threat to humans, they can be 100% fatal in pigs, devastate local economies, and can increase food insecurity. All things that are tough to handle in normal times, but even more difficult in the midst of a pandemic.
So we'll keep an eye on this story in the days ahead.
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